Advanced Petroleum Economics and Decision Analysis

The energy economy is transforming faster than any industry in history. Success in this new era of environment, competition, and emerging technologies depends not on chance, but on informed, strategic decisions. As Peter Drucker once noted, “The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence—it is to act with yesterday’s logic.” This course provides advanced tools to think clearly energy business and challenges ahead—using data, economic reasoning, and decision analysis—to turn global challenges into sustainable opportunities for growth, resilience, and innovation.

Participants will master probabilistic modelling, real options valuation, and Bayesian reasoning—tools essential for evaluating complex upstream projects under uncertainty. The curriculum integrates financial theory, policy economics, and scenario-based planning to support informed decision-making.

Software Requirements: The course uses Lumivero’s Decision Suit Tools (formerly Palisade Decision Suit Tools), including @Risk and Precision Tree. However, delegates do not need access to these platforms as other alternative solutions will be discussed during the course.

This course highlights:

• Apply probabilistic valuation techniques to upstream oil and gas assets.
• Construct and interpret Monte Carlo simulations for reserves, price, and cost uncertainty.
• Use Bayesian updating to refine probability estimates as new information emerges.
• Evaluate real options embedded in petroleum investment decisions.
• Model probabilistic price scenarios using stochastic processes and market data.
• Integrate fiscal regimes, ESG constraints, and policy uncertainty into investment appraisals.

Develop decision support frameworks that combine technical, economic, and strategic dimensions.

To succeed in the oil & gas industry is to create value. Learning about the subsurface challenges, along with the energy commodity market leads to insights that support good decision making. Good project decisions often lead to value creation.

At the end of this training course, you will learn to:

• Explain key aspects of the evolving energy landscape and its implications for oil and gas ventures.
• Summarize the fundamental principles of petroleum project economics and valuation techniques.
• Apply prudent business decisions to differentiate successful petroleum firms in an evolving global landscape.
• Analyse the impact of risk and uncertainty on management decision-making.
• Apply consistent financial valuation techniques to analyse petroleum projects.
• Use analytical tools and software for effective project evaluation and decision making.
• Evaluate the implications of uncertainty and risk on project feasibility.
• Create decision support models that consider the influence of uncertain hydrocarbon prices and environmental considerations on value creation.

Who Should Attend?