Financial CGE Modelling

Day 1: Foundations of CGE Modelling

• Purpose and role of CGE modelling in economic and financial analysis
• Key concepts: equilibrium, agents, markets, prices and income flows
• Structure of a basic CGE model and its main components
• Difference between CGE models, econometric models and financial forecasting models

Day 2: Economic Data and Model Structure

• Understanding Social Accounting Matrices and national accounts data
• Mapping households, firms, government, sectors and external accounts
• Production, consumption, income distribution and expenditure relationships
• Data consistency, benchmark equilibrium and model calibration principles

Day 3: Financial Dimensions of CGE Models

• Savings, investment and capital formation within CGE frameworks
• Government finance, taxation, expenditure and fiscal balance modelling
• External sector modelling, exchange rates, imports, exports and capital flows
• Financial closure rules and their impact on model outcomes

Day 4: Policy Simulation and Scenario Analysis

• Designing policy shocks and economic scenarios for CGE analysis
• Modelling fiscal policy, subsidy reform, tax changes and public investment
• Assessing sectoral, household, employment and macroeconomic impacts
• Interpreting changes in GDP, prices, wages, output, welfare and trade balances

Day 5: Model Interpretation and Decision Support

• Reading and validating the CGE model results for financial and policy decisions.
• Communicating model assumptions, limitations and uncertainty
• Translating CGE outputs into policy briefs, financial reports and recommendations
• Governance, documentation and quality control in economic modelling projects